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After losing out the most from their clash at the end of the Austrian Grand Prix, Lando Norris left the Red Bull Ring with an 81-point deficit to Max Verstappen at the top of the drivers’ championship.
Over the months that followed, Norris and McLaren have gradually chipped away at that advantage. But if the threat that Norris poses to the world champion is to progress from hypothetical to credible, he needs to take a paradigm-shifting chunk of points out of his advantage.
Norris is unlikely to get a better opportunity to that than today. Heading into what will be an unpredictable wet race from pole position with Verstappen starting down in the midfield, Norris could come away from today in a completely different situation championship-wise than he did when he woke up this morning.
With the rain set to continue, it is going to be a wet Brazilian Grand Prix. The last-minute decision by organisers to move the race start earlier to try and avoid the worst of the expected afternoon rain could be the difference between getting a full race in or even a race at all. But the race that does take place will be extremely treacherous with drivers not able to be at anything other than the top of their games for the entire duration.
But Norris is in the best position possible to take advantage of this golden opportunity presented to him. With a clear track, he will have the best visibility in the field as well as likely the best car to exploit that advantage.
Although Verstappen appears to be bracing for a major blow to his championship lead, he could be helped out by rivals ahead being unable to take the start with damaged cars or the race itself being shortened because of rain or incidents resulting in red flags. If the race does not complete 75 percent of the scheduled laps – around lap 54 – partially reduced points will be awarded. A not inconsequential factor in this equation.
Either way, if Norris seriously wants to win this world championship or have any hope of taking a title in the future, he needs to capitalise on a day like today. The only questions are can he, and what can Verstappen do to try and minimise the damage to his championship lead?
Weather
The most important element of today’s race will, naturally, be the weather. Just how bad it is going to be?
As the weekend has progressed, it became increasingly more likely that the Brazilian Grand Prix would be wet. There was always a risk of the track being hit by rain at around 3pm local time – an hour after the originally planned race start – but now rain is predicted to remain relatively steady throughout the day.
The worst of the rain as still anticipated around the original race start time, which explains the extremely unusual call by F1 and the FIA to move the start time earlier by 90 minutes on the day before the race. Either way, there is unlikely to be any need for dry tyres at all during the grand prix, with drivers facing the first fully wet race at Interlagos since 2016.
If that proves the case, the entire grand prix could be blown wide open, with all conventional strategies and usual factors in the race being completely thrown out.
Teams may even have to reckon with the possibility the race distance could be cut short. That might be a blow for Norris, as fewer points are awarded for curtailed races.
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Start
Given today’s rain, the question is not so much what kind of action could we see at the start, but what kind of start will it be. Should there be enough standing water on the circuit, there’s a very high chance that the race will start behind the Safety Car.
Over the last ten starts of the Brazilian Grand Prix, the pole winner has led the opening lap of the race eight times, with only Max Verstappen in 2021 and Sebastian Vettel in 2017 taking the lead from second on the grid.
The run to the first corner from pole position is one of the shortest all season, at just under 200 metres. But pole position is on the right hand side of the grid, giving the driver in second the inside line into the left hander of the Senna S, which becomes the outside of turn two before the inside again into the left hander of turn three.
Assuming a grid start – although that is seriously in question – Norris will have the best view of any driver in the field entering turn one. He has to make the most of that and ensure he rounds Curva do Sol still with his lead intact.
Strategy
With it near certain that the race will start in the wet, there are no concerns over using two types of compounds for the race. Instead, this race will all be about being on the right kind of wet tyres at the right time and managing them well.
The extreme wets are unpopular and drivers will be looking to switch onto the preferred intermediates as soon and as often as will be possible. Even in qualifying, drivers were being warned about their wet tyres overheating, meaning that managing the rubber through the race in the conditions.
But what will be more important than tyre life will be water levels on track. As always in a wet race, it’s almost always worth making an extra pit stop to ensure that you have the right tyres for the conditions. Communication between the pit wall and the cockpit will be critical.
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Overtaking
As the sprint race showed on Saturday, overtaking is definitely possible into the first corner down the pit straight with DRS, while the second major passing point being into Descida do Lago at turn four. However, in a wet race, even the twisting turns in the middle part of the lap become potential passing options.
But the new asphalt around the circuit could make the prospects of passing more challenging. After the sprint race, some drivers reported that the racing line was particularly narrow, meaning that grip outside of the main line was much worse than at most other circuits off line.
As grip will be at a premium this afternoon, even straying from the groove slightly to try and pass another car may be a seriously risky venture. How much risk Verstappen is prepared to take to make progress up the field is going to be one of the defining elements of the race.
Safety Cars
Although the sprint races in Interlagos never seem to result in Safety Cars – as was the case again on Saturday, the grands prix are often far more eventful.
Of the last ten Brazilian Grands Prix, six have featured at least one full Safety Car deployment at some point over the 71 laps. Of those, four of them have featured multiple Safety Cars or Virtual Safety Cars.
Naturally, when the rain comes, that risk only grows. The infamous 2016 race – the last fully wet grand prix at Interlagos – saw four separate Safety Car periods and two red flag stoppages due to heavy rain.
As such, teams will have be prepared for more delays, periods of waiting under red flag and, potentially, a shortened race. Beyond the title battle, there could be critical opportunities for teams like Sauber to finally try and score their first point of the championship – if they stay on the circuit.
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One to watch
In a race like this, every driver has the potential to shine. But there’s naturally only one driver who will attract the most attention and that is Verstappen.
In the very unlikely event that all 20 cars make the start, the championship leader should start from 17th on the grid. He is naturally no stranger to making his way quickly through the field and has form at Interlagos in the wet.
But Verstappen knows he could lose a large amount of points to Norris in the championship and that every position gained in the top ten could prove critical for his prospects of keeping Norris at bay over the final rounds of the championship. How much is he prepared to risk and force the issue to limit the damage to his lead?
Over to you
What do you expect from what will likely be a wet and wild grand prix? Share your views on the Brazilian Grand Prix in the comments.
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